I was catching up on some reading this morning, and came across an article in a Wired magazine I hadn't bothered to break the spine on. Nothing mind-blowing - a review of a new book about why traffic is so screwy and why the human factor is what makes it so bad. In the process of explaining the basic theme of the book, the reviewer brought up the concept of Nash Equilibrium, and it made me think of TV.
Nash Equilirium? You know it. It's a classic of Game Theory. It's the idea that if you have a strategy, based on the expectation that you now what your competitors will do, and that their srategy will not change, then you have no incentive to change your strategy. You know what - that was a clumsy explanation. Why don't we just see how the movie "A Beautiful Mind" summed it up. (Yes, this theory was developed by that Nash...)
OK, got it? Good. Now, here's my question: When will broadcasters get this? Let me explain.
Who are we all after in the broadcast game? Who's our blonde that we're all chasing? Young females, preferably 18 - 49, with some disposable income. She's everybody's favorite target. The problem, however, is just like this illustration with the blonde. We can't all get her. So, why can't we follow our best interests by pursuing other options?
Don't get me wrong - I get it. The broadcast game is still interested in the most fish in the net at any one time. But I've never worked at a station that named a different target viewer than the young female. And, yes - I get that we want her because she's the one who chooses between Minute Maid and Tropicana in the household, and that what advertisers care about.
At some point, though, this game changed on us. She's had too many other options for too many years. Still, there we all are, chasing after her.
Aren't there some guys who'd like to be sold something? Maybe some older viewers out there? Kids? There are so many different audiences, and pursuing each of them than can be pretty lucrative (although I grant that your daytime numbers can be painfully low with some of these audiences).
So why are we all in this tug-of-war for the same viewer?
This may sound like sacrilege, but imagine how off guard your competitor would be if you gave up pursuing the same old audience?
Consider the words of Sun Tzu (Translation by Lionel Giles):
"Appear at points which the enemy must hasten to defend; march swiftly to places where you are not expected.
An army may march great distances without distress, if it marches through country where the enemy is not."
Like the movie clip explains: Pursuing the young female may be what's best for us individually, but it's not necessarily what's best for both ourselves and the industry.
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